[Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Colombian population according to mitigation measures. Preliminary data from epidemiological models for the period March 18 to April 18, 2020]. / Proyecciones de impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 en la población colombiana, según medidas de mitigación. Datos preliminares de modelos epidemiológicos para el periodo del 18 de marzo al 18 de abril de 2020.

INTRODUCTION: First case of COVID-19 in Colombia was diagnosed on March 6th. Two weeks later, cases have rapidly increased, leading the government to establish some mitigation measures. OBJECTIVES: The first objective is to estimate and model the number of cases, use of hospital resources and mortality by using different R0 scenarios in a 1-month scenario (from March 18 to April 18, 2020), based on the different isolation measures applied. This work also aims to model, without establishing a time horizon, the same outcomes given the assumption that eventually 70% of the population will be infected. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on the number of confirmed cases in the country as of March 18, 2020 (n=93) were taken as the basis for the achievement of the first objective. An initial transmission rate of R0= 2.5 and a factor of 27 for undetected infections per each confirmed case were taken as assumptions for the model. The proportion of patients who may need intensive care or other in-hospital care was based on data from the Imperial College of London. On the other hand, an age-specific mortality rate provided by the Instituto Superiore di Sanità in Italy was used for the second objective. RESULTS: Based on the 93 cases reported as of March 18, if no mitigation measures were applied, by April 18, the country would have 613 037 cases. Mitigation measures that reduce R0 by 10% generate a 50% reduction in the number of cases. However, despite halving the number of cases, there would still be a shortfall in the number of beds required and only one in two patients would have access to this resource. CONCLUSION: This model found that the mitigation measures implemented to date by the Colombian government and analyzed in this article are based on sufficient evidence and will help to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia. Although a time horizon of one month was used for this model, it is plausible to believe that, if the current measures are sustained, the mitigation effect will also be sustained over time.

Role of the arts in the life and mental health of young people that participate in artistic organizations in Colombia: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents and young adults are vulnerable to developing mental distress. However, evidence suggests that more than half of the young people with symptoms of depression and anxiety overcome their distress within a year. However, there is little research on the exact resources that young people use and help them to recover. The aim of this study was to explore how arts activities can support the recovery of young people engaged with arts organizations in Bogota. METHODS: We recruited 38 participants from two arts organizations in Bogotá and conducted six focus groups embedded within artistic workshops. The type of activities in the workshops varied reflecting the different teaching methods of the two organizations. The focus group discussions were recorded and analyzed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Five themes explained how arts activities can help young people participating in artistic organizations to overcome mental distress: i) allowing the expression of emotions; ii) helping to manage and transform emotions; iii) distracting from problems; iv) facilitating social support and relationships; and v) contributing to the identity of young people. CONCLUSIONS: For young people who participate in artistic organizations, the arts are a resource for overcoming negative emotions such as anxiety, depression, and sadness. The beneficial role of arts activities includes different process of managing, expressing, and distracting from distress, and it differs depending on whether arts are perceived as a professional vocation or a hobby.

Mental health and psychosocial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and social distancing measures among young adults in Bogotá, Colombia.

We sought to explore mental health and psychosocial impact among young people (18 to 24 years old) in Bogotá during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We carried a cross sectional study using a web-based survey to assess mental health and personal impact among 18 to 24 years old living in Bogotá during the first 4 months of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. The depressive symptoms were measured with PHQ-8 and anxiety symptoms with (GAD-7). We also designed a questionnaire exploring changes in personal, family and social life. Results: Overall, 23% of the sample (n = 834) reported mild depressive symptoms (males 24% and females 23%); 29% reported moderate depressive symptoms (males 28%, females 30%); 22% moderate-severe symptoms (males 20%, females 23%) and 17% severe symptoms (males 15%, females 17%). Mild anxiety symptoms were reported by 29% of the sample (males 30%, females 29%); moderate anxiety symptoms by 29% (males 26%, females 30%); moderate-severe 18% (males 15%, females 20%) and severe anxiety by 6.0% (males 6.0% and females 6.0%). High symptoms of depression (PHQ-8 ≥ 10) were associated with being female, considering that the quarantine was stressful, having one member of the family losing their job, worsening of family relationships, decrease of physical activity and having a less nutritious diet. Having high anxiety symptoms (GAD-7 ≥ 10) were associated with sometimes not having enough money to buy food. Conclusions: The first months of the pandemic lockdown were associated with high depressive and anxiety symptoms among young persons living in Bogotá, Colombia. Increasing public health measures to provide support for young people is needed during lockdowns and it is necessary to further explore the long-term mental health impact due to personal, family and social changes brought by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Adapting DIALOG+ in a School Setting-A Tool to Support Well-being and Resilience in Adolescents Living in Postconflict Areas During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Protocol for a Cluster Randomized Exploratory Study.

BACKGROUND: Colombia has a long history of an armed conflict that has severely affected communities with forced internal displacement and violence. Victims of violence and armed conflicts have higher rates of mental health disorders, and children and adolescents are particularly affected. However, the mental health needs of this population are often overlooked, especially in low- and middle-Income countries, where scarcity of resources exacerbates the problem that has been further compounded by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, special attention should be paid to the development of interventions that target this population. OBJECTIVE: Our research aims to adapt an existing patient-centered digital intervention called DIALOG+ from a clinical setting to an educational setting using stakeholders' (teachers' and students') perspectives. We aim to evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, and estimated effect of implementing this intervention as a tool for the identification and mobilization of personal and social resources to mitigate the impact of social difficulties and to promote mental well-being. METHODS: We will conduct an exploratory mixed methods study in public schools of postconflict areas in Tolima, Colombia. The study consists of 3 phases: adaptation, exploration, and consolidation of the DIALOG+ tool. The adaptation phase will identify possible changes that the intervention requires on the basis of data from focus groups with teachers and students. The exploration phase will be an exploratory cluster randomized trial with teachers and school counselors to assess the acceptability, feasibility, and estimated effect of DIALOG+ for adolescents in school settings. Adolescents' data about mental health symptoms and wellness will be collected before and after DIALOG+ implementation. During this phase, teachers or counselors who were part of the intervention group will share their opinions through the think-aloud method. Lastly, the consolidation phase will consist of 2 focus groups with teachers and students to discuss their experiences and to understand acceptability. RESULTS: Study recruitment was completed in March 2022, and follow-up is anticipated to last through November 2022. CONCLUSIONS: This exploratory study will evaluate the acceptability, feasibility, and estimated effect of DIALOG+ for adolescents in postconflict school settings in Colombia. The use of this technology-supported tool aims to support interactions between teachers or counselors and students and to provide an effective student-centered communication guide. This is an innovative approach in both the school and the postconflict contexts that could help improve the mental health and wellness of adolescents in vulnerable zones in Colombia. Subsequent studies will be needed to evaluate the effectiveness of DIALOG+ in an educational context as a viable option to reduce the gap and inequities of mental health care access. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN14396374; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN14396374?q=ISRCTN14396374. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/40286.

Perceived access to general and mental healthcare in primary care in Colombia during COVID-19: A cross-sectional study

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact both in general and mental healthcare, challenged the health systems worldwide, and affected their capacity to deliver essential health services. We aimed to describe perceived changes in ease of access to general and mental healthcare among patients with a diagnosis of depression and/or unhealthy alcohol use in Colombia. Methods This study is embedded in the DIADA project, a multicenter implementation research study aimed at evaluating the integration of mental healthcare in primary care in Colombia. Between November 2020 and August 2021, we conducted a COVID-19 pandemic impact assessment in a cohort of participants with newly diagnosed depression and/or unhealthy alcohol use part of DIADA project. We assessed the ease of access and factors related to perceived ease of access to general or mental healthcare, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results 836 participants completed the COVID-19 pandemic impact assessment. About 30% of participants considered their mental health to be worse during the pandemic and 84.3% perceived access to general healthcare to be worse during the pandemic. Most of participants (85.8%) were unable to assess access to mental health services, but a significant proportion considered it to be worse. Experiencing worse ease of access to general healthcare was more frequent among women, patients with diagnosis of depression, and patients with comorbidities. Experiencing worse ease of access to mental healthcare was more frequent among patients aged between 30 and 49.9 years, from socioeconomic status between 4 and 6, affiliated to the contributive social security regime, attending urban study sites, and those who perceived their mental health was worse during the pandemic. Discussion Despite the overall perception of worse mental health during the pandemic, the use of mental healthcare was low compared to general healthcare. Ease of access was perceived to be worse compared to pre-pandemic. Ease of access and access were affected by geographical study site, socioeconomic status, age and gender. Our findings highlight the need for improved communication between patients and institutions, tailored strategies to adapt the healthcare provision to patients' characteristics, and continued efforts to strengthen the role of mental healthcare provision in primary care.

Cumulative incidence, prevalence, seroconversion, and associated factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers of a University Hospital in Bogotá, Colombia.

This study aimed to determine the cumulative incidence, prevalence, and seroconversion of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its associated factors among healthcare workers (HCWs) of a University Hospital in Bogotá, Colombia. An ambispective cohort was established from March 2020 to February 2021. From November 2020 to February 2021, SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured on two occasions 14-90 days apart to determine seroprevalence and seroconversion. We used multivariate log-binomial regression to evaluate factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Among 2,597 HCWs, the cumulative incidence of infection was 35.7%, and seroprevalence was 21.5%. A reduced risk of infection was observed among those aged 35-44 and ≥45 years (adjusted relative risks [aRRs], 0.84 and 0.83, respectively), physicians (aRR, 0.77), those wearing N95 respirators (aRR, 0.82) and working remotely (aRR, 0.74). Being overweight (aRR, 1.18) or obese (aRR, 1.24); being a nurse or nurse assistant (aRR, 1.20); working in the emergency room (aRR, 1.45), general wards (aRR, 1.45), intensive care unit (aRR, 1.34), or COVID-19 areas (aRR, 1.17); and close contact with COVID-19 cases (aRR, 1.47) increased the risk of infection. The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection found in this study reflects the dynamics of the first year of the pandemic in Bogotá. A high burden of infection calls for strengthening prevention and screening measures for HCWs, focusing especially on those at high risk.

Stakeholder perspectives on a patient-centred intervention (DIALOG+) for adolescents with common mental disorders in Colombia: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Patient and stakeholders' involvement in the development of mental health interventions is a central part of the research process as end-user's input can improve the design of patient-centered interventions. This is particularly important when developing interventions directed towards improving the mental health of children and adolescents. The rising prevalence of mental health disorders in this population requires special attention and the development of interventions that include them as active participants is crucial. OBJECTIVE: Our aim is to explore the perspectives and opinions of adolescents, parents, educators/youth workers, and clinicians regarding the appeal and usability of an existing patient-centered digital intervention (DIALOG+), which aims to improve quality of life. METHODS: As part of a broader study aiming to adapt and test DIALOG+, we conducted Online Focus Groups (OFGs) with adults and adolescents in two cities in Colombia. The existing DIALOG+ intervention was introduced to participants, followed by a structured discussion regarding the opinions and views of stakeholders. A framework approach was used to identify the main themes followed by content analysis to aid adaptation. RESULTS: We conducted 10 OFGs with a total of 45 participants. A positive feature highlighted by all groups was the innovation of including a digital intervention in a traditional medical visit. Additionally, participants considered that the active role that adolescents have when using the intervention empowers them. Barriers identified included concerns from clinicians related to the time required during consultations and confusion with terminology. Furthermore, additional domains that are particularly relevant for the adolescent population were suggested. CONCLUSIONS: Data obtained suggest that overall, the DIALOG+ intervention and supporting app are seen as innovative and appealing to adolescents as well as adult stakeholders. However, concerns raised about the availability of time to apply the intervention, the app interface and the language and terminology require modification.

Adapting a Mental Health Intervention for Adolescents During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Web-Based Synchronous Focus Group Study.

BACKGROUND: Although focus groups are a valuable qualitative research tool, face-to-face meetings may be difficult to arrange and time consuming. This challenge has been further compounded by the global COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdown and physical distancing measures implemented, which caused exceptional challenges to human activities. Online focus groups (OFGs) are an example of an alternative strategy and require further study. At present, OFGs have mostly been studied and used in high-income countries, with little information relating to their implementation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to share our experiences of conducting OFGs through a web conferencing service and provide recommendations for future research. METHODS: As part of a broader study, OFGs were developed with adults and adolescents in Colombia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through a convenience sampling method, we invited eligible participants via email in two different cities of Colombia to participate in OFGs conducted via Microsoft Teams. Researcher notes and discussion were used to capture participant and facilitator experiences, as well as practical considerations. RESULTS: Technical issues were encountered, but various measures were taken to minimize them, such as using a web conferencing service that was familiar to participants, sending written instructions, and performing a trial meeting prior to the OFG. Adolescent participants, unlike their adult counterparts, were fluent in using web conferencing platforms and did not encounter technical challenges. CONCLUSIONS: OFGs have great potential in research settings, especially during the current and any future public health emergencies. It is important to keep in mind that even with the advantages that they offer, technical issues (ie, internet speed and access to technology) are major obstacles in LMICs. Further research is required and should carefully consider the appropriateness of OFGs in different settings.

Replica a la carta al editor “Sobre las “reflexiones críticas” al Índice de resiliencia epidemiológica municipal”

Agradecemos los comentarios de Rojas-Botero et al.1 sobre el documento de nuestra autoría titulado "Critical reflections about the Municipal epidemiological resilience index used for public policy decision-making regarding the control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia"2. Reconocemos que la salud pública, entendida como la condición de bienestar de la comunidad, es a lo que deben estar dedicados todos nuestros esfuerzos como profesionales de la salud. En este sentido, la toma de decisiones en medio de una emergencia de gran magnitud, como la que enfrentamos en la actualidad a causa de la pandemia por COVID-19, requiere de un juicio ponderado y sereno que considere tanto el contexto general como las especificidades locales y que incluya la mejor evidencia científica disponible, es decir, aquella que no solo soporte las decisiones, sino que también privilegie los beneficios sobre los riesgos. Alternate abstract: We greatly appreciate the comments made by Rojas-Botero et al.1 on our paper entitled “Critical reflections on the Municipal Epidemiological Resilience Index used for public policy decision-making regarding the control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia”.2 We acknowledge that public health, understood as the well-being of the community, should be the focus of all our efforts as health professionals. In this sense, decision-making amid a major emergency, such as the one we are currently experiencing due to the COVID-19 pandemic, requires a balanced and calm judgment that considers both the general context and local specificities, as well as the best available scientific evidence, that is, evidence that not only supports decisions, but also prioritizes benefits over risks.

Reflexiones críticas sobre el Índice de resiliencia epidemiológica municipal utilizado para la toma de decisiones de política pública en el control de la pandemia por COVID-19 en Colombia

El 2 de junio de 2021, el Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social de Colombia expidió la Resolución 777, mediante la cual se determinan las condiciones para el reinicio de todas las actividades económicas y sociales restringidas. Asimismo, en esta resolución se define el Índice de resiliencia epidemiológica municipal (IREM) como la herramienta para apoyar la toma de decisiones relacionadas con esta reactivación económica en medio del tercer pico epidémico de la COVID-19 en el país. El objetivo de este artículo es hacer un análisis crítico de los aspectos técnicos del IREM y explorar la conveniencia de su implementación como soporte del reinicio de las actividades económicas y sociales propuesto en la resolución. Dentro de este análisis crítico se destaca la falta de una clara definición de resiliencia epidemiológica que se ajuste a la literatura científica. Además, se cuestiona tanto la validez de apariencia, contenido y constructo del índice global, como la validez del constructo de sus dimensiones y, por tanto, la pertinencia de usarlo como herramienta para definir dicho reinicio. Alternate abstract: On June 2, 2021, the Colombian Ministry of Health and Social Protection, through Resolution No. 777, laid down the requirements to resume all restricted economic and social activities. Similarly, said Resolution established the Municipal Epidemiological Resilience Index (IREM by its acronym in Spanish) as a tool to support decision-making regarding this economic reactivation amid the third epidemic peak of COVID-19 in the country. The purpose of this article is to perform a critical analysis of the technical aspects of the IREM and to explore the feasibility of its implementation as a support for the resumption of economic and social activities as proposed in the Resolution. The present critical analysis emphasizes on the lack of a clear definition of epidemiological resilience that is consistent with the scientific literature. Furthermore, the face and content validity of the index, as well as the construct validity of the index and of its dimensions, are called into question and, therefore, the feasibility of using it to determine said resumption.

Which resources help young people to prevent and overcome mental distress in deprived urban areas in Latin America? A protocol for a prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Improving the mental health of young people is a global public health priority. In Latin America, young people living in deprived urban areas face various risk factors for mental distress. However, most either do not develop mental distress in the form of depression and anxiety, or recover within a year without treatment from mental health services. This research programme seeks to identify the personal and social resources that help young people to prevent and recover from mental distress. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A cross-sectional study will compare personal and social resources used by 1020 young people (aged 15-16 and 20-24 years) with symptoms of depression and/or anxiety and 1020 without. A longitudinal cohort study will follow-up young people with mental distress after 6 months and 1 year and compare resource use in those who do and do not recover. An experience sampling method study will intensively assess activities, experiences and mental distress in subgroups over short time periods. Finally, we will develop case studies highlighting existing initiatives that effectively support young people to prevent and recover from mental distress. The analysis will assess differences between young people with and without distress at baseline using t-tests and χ2 tests. Within the groups with mental distress, multivariate logistic regression analyses using a random effects model will assess the relationship between predictor variables and recovery. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approvals are received from Ethics Committee in Biomedical Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Buenos Aires; Faculty of Medicine-Research and Ethics Committee of the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá; Institutional Ethics Committee of Research of the Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia and Queen Mary Ethics of Research Committee. Dissemination will include arts-based methods and target different audiences such as national stakeholders, researchers from different disciplines and the general public. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN72241383.

Analysis of Perceptions and Emotional Repercussions in Twitter Users in Colombia During the COVID-19 Pandemic. / Análisis de percepciones y repercusiones emocionales en usuarios de Twitter en Colombia durante la pandemia de COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted mental health. Up to a quarter of the population has reported mental health disorders. This has been studied mainly from a nosological perspective, according to diagnostic criteria. Nevertheless, we did not find studies that have explored the daily expressions of the population. Our objective was to evaluate the perceptions of the COVID-19 pandemic and its repercussions on the emotional well-being of the Colombian population. METHODS: We performed a Twitter metrics and trend analysis. Initially, in the trend analysis, we calculated the average duration in hours of the 20 most popular trending topics of the day in Colombia and we grouped them into trends related to COVID-19 and unrelated trends. Subsequently, we identified dates of events associated with the pandemic relevant to the country, and they were related to the behaviour of the trends studied. Additionally, we did an exploratory analysis of these, selected the tweets with the greatest reach and categorised them in an inductive way to analyse them qualitatively. RESULTS: Issues not related to COVID-19 were more far-reaching than those related to coronavirus. However, a rise in these issues was seen on some dates consistent with important events in Colombia. We found expressions of approval and disapproval, solidarity and accusation. Inductively, we identified categories of informative tweets, humour, fear, stigma and discrimination, politics and entities, citizen complaints, and self-care and optimism. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic generates different reactions in the population, which increasingly have more tools to express themselves and know the opinions of others. Social networks play a fundamental role in the communication of the population, so this content could serve as a public health surveillance tool and a useful and accessible means of communication in the management of health crises.

COVID-19: Adaptation of a model to predicting healthcare resources needs in Valle del Cauca, Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Valle del Cauca is the region with the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases in Colombia (>50,000 on September 7, 2020). Due to the lack of anti-COVID-19 therapies, decision-makers require timely and accurate data to estimate the incidence of disease and the availability of hospital resources to contain the pandemic. METHODS: We adapted an existing model to the local context to forecast COVID-19 incidence and hospital resource use assuming different scenarios: (1) the implementation of quarantine from September 1st to October 15th (average daily growth rate of 2%); (2-3) partial restrictions (at 4% and 8% growth rates); and (4) no restrictions, assuming a 10% growth rate. Previous scenarios with predictions from June to August were also presented. We estimated the number of new cases, diagnostic tests required, and the number of available hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds (with and without ventilators) for each scenario. RESULTS: We estimated 67,700 cases by October 15th when assuming the implementation of a quarantine, 80,400 and 101,500 cases when assuming partial restrictions at 4% and 8% infection rates, respectively, and 208,500 with no restrictions. According to different scenarios, the estimated demand for reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction tests ranged from 202,000 to 1,610,600 between September 1st and October 15th. The model predicted depletion of hospital and ICU beds by September 20th if all restrictions were to be lifted and the infection growth rate increased to 10%. CONCLUSION: Slowly lifting social distancing restrictions and reopening the economy is not expected to result in full resource depletion by October if the daily growth rate is maintained below 8%. Increasing the number of available beds provides a safeguard against slightly higher infection rates. Predictive models can be iteratively used to obtain nuanced predictions to aid decision-making.

INTRODUCCIÓN: Valle del Cauca es el departamento con el cuarto mayor número de casos de COVID-19 en Colombia (>50,000 en septiembre 7, 2020). Debido a la ausencia de tratamientos efectivos para COVID-19, los tomadores de decisiones requieren de acceso a información actualizada para estimar la incidencia de la enfermedad, y la disponibilidad de recursos hospitalarios para contener la pandemia. MÉTODOS: Adaptamos un modelo existente al contexto local para estimar la incidencia de COVID-19, y la demanda de recursos hospitalarios en los próximos meses. Para ello, modelamos cuatro escenarios hipotéticos: (1) el gobierno local implementa una cuarentena desde el primero de septiembre hasta el 15 de octubre (asumiendo una tasa promedio de infecciones diarias del 2%); (2-3) se implementan restricciones parciales (tasas de infección del 4% y 8%); (4) se levantan todas las restricciones (tasa del 10%). Los mismos escenarios fueron previamente evaluados entre julio y agosto, y los resultados fueron resumidos. Estimamos el número de casos nuevos, el número de pruebas diagnósticas requeridas, y el numero de camas de hospital y de unidad de cuidados intensivos (con y sin ventilación) disponibles, para cada escenario. RESULTADOS: El modelo estimó 67,700 casos a octubre 15 al asumir la implementación de una nueva cuarentena, 80,400 y 101,500 al asumir restricciones parciales al 4 y 8% de infecciones diarias, respectivamente, y 208,500 al asumir ninguna restricción. La demanda por pruebas diagnósticas (de reacción en cadena de la polimerasa) fue estimada entre 202,000 y 1,610,600 entre septiembre 1 y octubre 15, a través de los diferentes escenarios evaluados. El modelo estimó un agotamiento de camas de cuidados intensivos para septiembre 20 al asumir una tasa de infecciones del 10%. Conclusión: Se estima que el levantamiento paulatino de las restricciones de distanciamiento social y la reapertura de la economía no debería causar el agotamiento de recursos hospitalarios si la tasa de infección diaria se mantiene por debajo del 8%. Sin embargo, incrementar la disponibilidad de camas permitiría al sistema de salud ajustarse rápidamente a potenciales picos inesperados de infecciones nuevas. Los modelos de predicción deben ser utilizados de manera iterativa para depurar las predicciones epidemiológicas y para proveer a los tomadores de decisiones con información actualizada.

Pandemic's glossary: The ABC of coronavirus concepts

Resumen Actualmente, el mundo se enfrenta a la pandemia generada por el SARS-CoV-2, infección para la cual no hay medidas farmacológicas de prevención ni tratamiento. Hasta el momento, ha dejado más de 4'880.000 casos confirmados y 322.000 muertes. Se han propuesto diferentes estrategias para el control de la enfermedad que implican la participación de diferentes sectores de la sociedad con acciones guiadas por lineamientos jurídicos y basados en medidas de salud pública, entre ellas, la contención, la mitigación, el aislamiento físico y la cuarentena. Dado que se trata de una situación de dimensión poblacional, la información tiene un papel fundamental;sin embargo, la proliferación de términos nuevos, muchas veces usados erróneamente, causa confusión y desinformación y, en consecuencia, limitan la participación ciudanía. En ese contexto, en el presente documento se hizo una revisión de los términos utilizados en epidemias y pandemias de enfermedades infecciosas, con énfasis en la COVID-19, para facilitar al público general la comprensión de los términos relevantes sobre el comportamiento de los agentes patógenos y de su ciclo epidémico y pandémico, así como los criterios para la adopción de las decisiones pertinentes en salud pública. Se aspira a que el glosario resultante ayude al uso correcto de los términos y a homogenizar la información. Currently, the world is facing the pandemic generated by SARS-CoV-2. There are no no pharmacological measures for the prevention or treatment of this infection and, so far, it has caused more than 4'880.000 confirmed cases and 322.000 deaths. The different strategies for the control of the disease that have been proposed involve the participation of different actors. Such participation, guided by legal guidelines based on public health measures, include containment, mitigation, physical isolation, and quarantine. As this is a population-based problem, information plays a primary role;however, the many new terms hat have arisen and their misuse confuse and, therefore, misinform thus limiting citizen participation. For this reason, we conducted a review of the terms used in epidemics and pandemics of infectious diseases, particularly COVID-19. We considered and differentiated the relevant terms to facilitate the understanding of pathogen's behavior and epidemic and pandemic cycles, as well as the criteria for public health decision-making for the general public. This glossary should facilitate the use of the terms and standardize the information.

COVID-19: Adaptation of a model to predicting healthcare resources needs in Valle del Cauca, Colombia

Background: Valle del Cauca is the region with the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases in Colombia (>50,000 on September 7, 2020). Due to the lack of anti-COVID-19 therapies, decision-makers require timely and accurate data to estimate the incidence of disease and the availability of hospital resources to contain the pandemic. Methods: We adapted an existing model to the local context to forecast COVID-19 incidence and hospital resource use assuming different scenarios: (1) the implementation of quarantine from September 1st to October 15th (average daily growth rate of 2%);(2-3) partial restrictions (at 4% and 8% growth rates);and (4) no restrictions, assuming a 10% growth rate. Previous scenarios with predictions from June to August were also presented. We estimated the number of new cases, diagnostic tests required, and the number of available hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds (with and without ventilators) for each scenario. Results: We estimated 67,700 cases by October 15th when assuming the implementation of a quarantine, 80,400 and 101,500 cases when assuming partial restrictions at 4% and 8% infection rates, respectively, and 208,500 with no restrictions. According to different scenarios, the estimated demand for reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction tests ranged from 202,000 to 1,610,600 between September 1st and October 15th. The model predicted depletion of hospital and ICU beds by September 20th if all restrictions were to be lifted and the infection growth rate increased to 10%. Conclusion: Slowly lifting social distancing restrictions and reopening the economy is not expected to result in full resource depletion by October if the daily growth rate is maintained below 8%. Increasing the number of available beds provides a safeguard against slightly higher infection rates. Predictive models can be iteratively used to obtain nuanced predictions to aid decision-making Resumen Introducción: Valle del Cauca es el departamento con el cuarto mayor número de casos de COVID-19 en Colombia (>50,000 en septiembre 7, 2020). Debido a la ausencia de tratamientos efectivos para COVID-19, los tomadores de decisiones requieren de acceso a información actualizada para estimar la incidencia de la enfermedad, y la disponibilidad de recursos hospitalarios para contener la pandemia. Métodos: Adaptamos un modelo existente al contexto local para estimar la incidencia de COVID-19, y la demanda de recursos hospitalarios en los próximos meses. Para ello, modelamos cuatro escenarios hipotéticos: (1) el gobierno local implementa una cuarentena desde el primero de septiembre hasta el 15 de octubre (asumiendo una tasa promedio de infecciones diarias del 2%);(2-3) se implementan restricciones parciales (tasas de infección del 4% y 8%);(4) se levantan todas las restricciones (tasa del 10%). Los mismos escenarios fueron previamente evaluados entre julio y agosto, y los resultados fueron resumidos. Estimamos el número de casos nuevos, el número de pruebas diagnósticas requeridas, y el numero de camas de hospital y de unidad de cuidados intensivos (con y sin ventilación) disponibles, para cada escenario. Resultados: El modelo estimó 67,700 casos a octubre 15 al asumir la implementación de una nueva cuarentena, 80,400 y 101,500 al asumir restricciones parciales al 4 y 8% de infecciones diarias, respectivamente, y 208,500 al asumir ninguna restricción. La demanda por pruebas diagnósticas (de reacción en cadena de la polimerasa) fue estimada entre 202,000 y 1,610,600 entre septiembre 1 y octubre 15, a través de los diferentes escenarios evaluados. El modelo estimó un agotamiento de camas de cuidados intensivos para septiembre 20 al asumir una tasa de infecciones del 10%. Conclusión: Se estima que el levantamiento paulatino de las restricciones de distanciamiento social y la reapertura de la economía no debería causar el agotamiento de recursos hospitalarios si la tasa de infección diaria se mantiene por debajo del 8%. Sin embargo, incrementar la disponibilidad de camas permitiría al sistema de salud ajustarse rápidamente a potenciales picos inesperados de infecciones nuevas. Los modelos de predicción deben ser utilizados de manera iterativa para depurar las predicciones epidemiológicas y para proveer a los tomadores de decisiones con información actualizada.

Proyecciones de impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 en la población colombiana, según medidas de mitigación: datos preliminares de modelos epidemiológicos para el periodo del 18 de marzo al 18 de abril de 2020

RESUMEN Objetivo Este estudio tiene como primer objetivo: realizar predicciones del curso de la infección en el horizonte temporal desde marzo 18 a abril 18 del 2020, según diferentes medidas de aislamiento aplicadas. Las predicciones incluyen, población total contagiada, mortalidad y necesidad de recursos hospitalarios. Segundo objetivo: modelar la mortalidad y la necesidad de recursos hospitalarios, estratificando por edad el escenario de contagio del 70% de la población. Métodos Para el primer objetivo, nos basamos en el número de casos confirmados en el país hasta marzo 18, 2020 (n=93). Como suposiciones para el modelo, incluimos un índice de contagio R0=2,5 y el índice de casos reales por cada caso confirmado. Para la proporción de pacientes que necesitarían cuidados intensivos u otros cuidados intrahospitalarios, nos basamos en datos aportados por el Imperial College of London. Para el segundo objetivo usamos como tasa de mortalidad por edad, datos aportados por el Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. Resultados Basándonos en los 93 casos reportados al 18 de marzo, si no se aplicase ninguna medida de mitigación, para el 18 de abril el país tendría un total de 613 037 casos. Medidas de mitigación que reduzcan el R0 en un 10%, generan una reducción del 50% del número de casos. Sin embargo, a pesar de reducirse los casos a la mitad, todavía habría un déficit en el número de camas requeridas y sólo uno de cada dos pacientes tendría acceso a dicho recurso. Conclusión En nuestro modelo encontramos que las medidas de mitigación que han sido implementadas hasta la fecha por el gobierno colombiano, se fundamentan en evidencia suficiente para pensar que es posible reducir significativamente el número de casos contagiados y con esto, el número de pacientes que requerirán manejo hospitalario.(AU) ABSTRACT Introduction First case of COVID-19 in Colombia was diagnosed on March 6th. Two weeks later, cases have rapidly increased, leading the government to establish some mitigation measures. Objectives The first objective is to estimate and model the number of cases, use of hospital resources and mortality by using different R0 scenarios in a 1-month scenario (from March 18 to April 18, 2020), based on the different isolation measures applied. This work also aims to model, without establishing a time horizon, the same outcomes given the assumption that eventually 70% of the population will be infected. Materials and Methods Data on the number of confirmed cases in the country as of March 18, 2020 (n=93) were taken as the basis for the achievement of the first objective. An initial transmission rate of R0= 2.5 and a factor of 27 for undetected infections per each confirmed case were taken as assumptions for the model. The proportion of patients who may need intensive care or other in-hospital care was based on data from the Imperial College of London. On the other hand, an age-specific mortality rate provided by the Instituto Superiore di Sanità in Italy was used for the second objective. Results Based on the 93 cases reported as of March 18, if no mitigation measures were applied, by April 18, the country would have 613 037 cases. Mitigation measures that reduce R0 by 10% generate a 50% reduction in the number of cases. However, despite halving the number of cases, there would still be a shortfall in the number of beds required and only one in two patients would have access to this resource. Conclusion This model found that the mitigation measures implemented to date by the Colombian government and analyzed in this article are based on sufficient evidence and will help to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia. Although a time horizon of one month was used for this model, it is plausible to believe that, if the current measures are sustained, the mitigation effect will also be sustained over time.(AU)

COVID-19: The forgotten priorities of the pandemic.

The zoonotic virus now named SARS-CoV-2 first infected humans in China, and COVID-19 has rapidly become pandemic. To mitigate its impact on societies, health systems and economies, countries have adopted non-pharmacological preventive practices such as 'spatial' or 'social' distancing, the use of protective masks, and handwashing; these have been widely implemented. However, measures aimed at protecting physical health and healthcare systems have side-effects that might have a big impact on individuals' wellbeing. As the pandemic reaches low- and middle-income countries, weaker health systems, limited resources and the lower socioeconomic status of their populations make halting the pandemic more challenging. In this article, we explore the impact of COVID-19 and its prevention measures on the wellbeing of vulnerable populations. Special attention must be given to homeless, indigenous, migrant and imprisoned populations, as well as people living with disabilities and the elderly. More than just resolute governmental action will be required to overcome the pandemic. Links between science and political actions have to be strengthened. Fighting COVID-19 is a collective endeavour and community action, on a global scale, is of paramount importance.